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07-26-2012   #1 (permalink)
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Lightbulb MyShop Box Statistics Collection

Hello ggftw tricksters!
(please help by testing our current theory provided at bottom of post! Thanks!)

conveniently formatted DATA: on Google Docs Spreadsheet (format subject to change with further statistics)

This thread is for collecting data about MyShop boxes (ANY AND ALL BOXES with RANDOM results), please fill out the form below when submitting data, I would prefer data as accurate as possible (preferably down to the minute/hour at least, seconds are even better), otherwise please refrain from submitting until you have more accurate data.

I'm open to any suggestions for further data collection, please feel free to comment. And thanks in advance to anyone providing data, I will submit some myself once I open any new boxes and have fresh info. If you do not approve of this experiment please simply refrain from participating, however any discussion is welcome. Results will be updated whenever a significant amount is received.

Good luck with getting your item!

FORM: (please use this format to submit data. 1 form per location only, more than 1 form per post is OK)
HTML Code:
[B]Box Name and Level:[/B]
[B]Location:[/B]
[B]Where you get your time from (trickster website/other):[/B]
[B]Time(s) and Date (PST):[/B]
[B]Item(s) Received:[/B]
[B]Number of Boxes opened:[/B]
Example/Explanation:
Spoiler!

Why I'm starting this thread: (skip if you're those tldr people)
Spoiler!

Updates Archive:
Spoiler!

Current Theory: (please help by testing this theory!)
Spoiler!

Last edited by Silence; 09-14-2012 at 02:49 PM.
 
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07-27-2012   #2 (permalink)
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Box Name and Level: Cat Box 30 DX
Location: Gate of Tapasco Volcano
Time Accuracy: (hour/minute/second): In order: 3:30:??, 3:31:??, 3:31:??, 3:32:??
Time(s) and Date (PST): 3:30-3:32 AM PST July 27th, 2012
Item(s) Received: In order: Jen's Belt 30 (Innerwear), Jen's Belt 30 (Innerwear), Jen's Belt 30 (Innerwear), and Kitty Paw 30 (Weapon)
Number of Boxes opened: 4


Box Name and Level: Tutankhamen's Box / Level 190
Location: Mega. Bank
Time Accuracy (Hour/Minute/Second): 3:41:?? AM
Time(s) and Date (PST): 3:41 AM PST July 27th, 2012
Item(s) Received: Pharaoh's Armlet (Accessory)
Number of Boxes opened: 1
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Last edited by Shanni; 07-27-2012 at 03:45 AM.
 
07-27-2012   #3 (permalink)
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Box Name and Level: Cat Box 30 DX
Location: Paradise shop.

Time Accuracy (Second/Minute/Hour): Minute
Time(s) and Date (PST): 27/07/2012 16:44
Item(s) Received: Miracle Jen 30
Number of Boxes opened: 1

I really think there are no correlations so I just open my boxes wherever. I guess i got lucky.
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07-27-2012   #4 (permalink)
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thanks guys ^^ will keep tallying this data, from the way we often get the same items over and over at certain times/places I think that there might still be something valuable from recording this information, even if I can't figure anything out someone else might.

Last edited by Silence; 07-27-2012 at 09:09 PM.
 
07-28-2012   #5 (permalink)
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Box Name and Level:Cat Box DX 30
Location:Megalopolis Bank right of Alan, 2 steps left from pink sign.
Where you get your time from (trickster website/other): trickster website
Time(s) and Date (PST): 2:24:09 28 July
Item(s) Received:Cat Earmuffs (helmet)
Number of Boxes opened:1

just testing this myth and adding my own try! >< this is my 9th box! maybe I'll try paradise shop as well next time haha.

There are so many people who open boxes, come give us your data! x3
 
07-28-2012   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silence
thanks guys ^^ will keep tallying this data, from the way we often get the same items over and over at certain times/places I think that there might still be something valuable from recording this information, even if I can't figure anything out someone else might.
Yeah no doubt that there is a use.
Anyways, i shall give you a bit of a thought on how to quantify it. First here is an explanation.
I believe in gacha the position on the grind is a good indication of the rarity of the item. The pet is in the first spot. Anyways, I suggest that you give each item a number according to when it appears on the event page.
In the case of the fallen angel this order would be.
1. Pet
2. Staff
3. Hat
4. Shield
5. Accessory

I believe DX boxes and boxes that have different numbers of items should be separately categorized. We cannot compare apples with bananas.

I still think it's like rolling an odd looking dice and that finding a correlation will be tough, but happy to be proven wrong.
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07-28-2012   #7 (permalink)
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that's a good idea thanks lady ei ^^
I'm going to do as you say, number 1-n, 1 being the rarest and n being the least according to the website releases, as for the DX and non-DX boxes, we can put DX in a different section so people can see the stats separately, of course I'll need more info before it will really make a difference.

google docs editted!

Last edited by Silence; 07-28-2012 at 06:34 PM.
 
07-28-2012   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silence
that's a good idea thanks lady ei ^^
I'm going to do as you say, number 1-n, 1 being the rarest and n being the least according to the website releases, as for the DX and non-DX boxes, we can put DX in a different section so people can see the stats separately, of course I'll need more info before it will really make a difference.
I do not think the items are in order of most to least rare but I think the positions may be of equal rarity?
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07-28-2012   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LadyEl
I do not think the items are in order of most to least rare but I think the positions may be of equal rarity?
right ok. edit!

opened another box, but just added the data directly, planning to open a few more later. will add info then!

Last edited by Silence; 07-28-2012 at 06:37 PM.
 
07-28-2012   #10 (permalink)
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Box Name and Level: Jen 30 DX.
Location: Lapnoel Post Office
Where you get your time from (trickster website/other): TO website.
Time(s) and Date (PST): 07/25/12, Times: 4:06:xxPM, 4:07:xxPM
Item(s) Received: 1. Jen Belt 30 2. Jen Earmuffs 30 3. Kitty Paw 30 4. Miracle Jen 30. (May have gotten names wrong.)
Number of Boxes opened:4
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07-29-2012   #11 (permalink)
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okay. update! please help test out this thread's first theory as follows by recording your box-opening to the second. (added to first post also) Thanks to all our participants!

Hypothesis
Items correspond to a certain range of seconds past the minute, which set of seconds corresponds to which item may be unique to each user. And ranges vary with number of different items per box.

Evidence:
So I opened 7 Cat 30 DX Boxes (and actually accidentally bought a normal cat box via the website link which I will not take into consideration) of which I actually recorded the exact second of opening. These are recorded under the green coloured numbers in the Google Document. Not taking into account my location at the time, or the hour and minutes, I received in the following order in precise seconds past the minute (all times are PST and taken from TO website) :
03s (helmet) 09s (helmet) 14s (innerwear) 23s (weapon) 31s (innerwear) 45s (pet) 58s (innerwear)

Under the theoretical assumption that certain seconds of the minute are associated with an item I can deduce as follows, the location box is opened at is included for reference. As you can see most were opened in the same place.

03-09s (3. helmet) Megalopolis Square/Megalopolis Bank
14s (5. innerwear) Megalopolis Square
23s (2. weapon) Megalopolis Square
31s (5. innerwear) Paradise shop
45s (1. pet) Megalopolis Square
58s (5. innerwear) Megalopolis Square

As you can see all were opened with the intention of being roughly 10s out from each other under the assumption that 0-9s,10-19s,20-29s,30-39s,40-49s,50-59s were all corresponding to different items. Of course the cat box 30 only has 5 items so technically there should be a repeat or a longer period for each item. The evidence shows that of the 7 trials, 1 at 31s is at a different location so the missing 'shield' item may be attributed to this inconsistency in location. Also this time ratio may be different for boxes with 7+ items.

Resulting Theory:
In a consistent location, each item from a myshop box will correspond with a range of 'seconds past the minute' this range depending on the type of box, the number of unique contents, and the user opening the box.
In order to test and prove this theory wrong/right, more data must be gathered!
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Help me help you by participating in the MyShop Box Statistics Collection whenever you open your myshop boxes! -includes google docs spreadsheet with all the data!

Last edited by Silence; 07-29-2012 at 06:28 PM.
 
07-31-2012   #12 (permalink)
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Might I make a suggestion?

While attempting to establish variables at least, it may be more economical to invest in some of those compounding boxes from popuri event, that is, assuming they work the same way.

If you play on Fantasia I can mail mine to you as have stacks if you from Jewlia you should be able to get some really cheap as they are neither rare nor useful.

Good luck i cant wait to see a result if you manage to get one
 
07-31-2012   #13 (permalink)
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heyy actually I have a bunch of those lying around. Do you really think they work the same way? I could test it, though I never thought about them working the same way before. Now that we have fast track and a bunch of weight mules for storing crap I guess I could try it. However I'd have to put the info separately because I have a gut feeling they might be a bit different, but then again you could be right.

I'll do a trial some time when I get it sorted, but thanks for the tip and feel free to drop by again ^^
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07-31-2012   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silence
heyy actually I have a bunch of those lying around. Do you really think they work the same way? I could test it, though I never thought about them working the same way before. Now that we have fast track and a bunch of weight mules for storing crap I guess I could try it. However I'd have to put the info separately because I have a gut feeling they might be a bit different, but then again you could be right.

I'll do a trial some time when I get it sorted, but thanks for the tip and feel free to drop by again ^^
I do not see why it would not. Everything involvi skills tends to be some kinda of function that is a straight line, a plane of a hyperplane. I believe comping and tempering may be similar too however their maths is not straight forward. So why not boxes and MS boxes, they work on similar principles.
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07-31-2012   #15 (permalink)
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If that's true then it would make this experiment a lot easier haha!
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08-02-2012   #16 (permalink)
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Box Name and Level:Cat Box 70 DX
Location:Megalopolis Square, Garden of Skill Master, Event Garden Ceremonia, Megalopolis Monster Guild and Megalopolis Guild Room
Where you get your time from (trickster website/other): trickster website
Time(s) and Date (PST): 22:21:10 1 August
Item(s) Received:Miracle Shield 70 (Shield), Jen's Cape 70 (Cape), Miracle Shield 70 (Shield), Miracle Shield 70 (Shield) and Miracle Jen 70 (Pet)
Number of Boxes opened:5

I was getting furious because i got 2 shields on a row, but i got the pet on the last box (I was out of MS) and got relieved.
 
08-03-2012   #17 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZexionNo6
Box Name and Level:Cat Box 70 DX
Location:Megalopolis Square, Garden of Skill Master, Event Garden Ceremonia, Megalopolis Monster Guild and Megalopolis Guild Room
Where you get your time from (trickster website/other): trickster website
Time(s) and Date (PST): 22:21:10 1 August
Item(s) Received:Miracle Shield 70 (Shield), Jen's Cape 70 (Cape), Miracle Shield 70 (Shield), Miracle Shield 70 (Shield) and Miracle Jen 70 (Pet)
Number of Boxes opened:5

I was getting furious because i got 2 shields on a row, but i got the pet on the last box (I was out of MS) and got relieved.
Thanks!

Would mind being more specific about how long you would have taken to open each of them? I only see 1 time so I assume that's when you started. When do think you opened the ones after the the first one? Sorry to be so pedantic.
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08-03-2012   #18 (permalink)
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Box Name and Level: Tutankhamen Box
Location: Oops Wharf
Where you get your time from (trickster website/other): Website
Time(s) and Date (PST): 14:14
Item(s) Received: Tutankhamen (Pet)
Number of Boxes opened: 1
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08-03-2012   #19 (permalink)
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Sorry for double posting, I forgot the date on my last post, the date was 2012/07/31

Box Name and Level: Roan Coldvice Box DX
Location: PvP Colluseam
Where you get your time from (trickster website/other): Website
Time(s) and Date (PST): 11th July 2012 15:47
Item(s) Received: Roan Coldvice, Roan Coldvice, Roan Coldvice, Bandit Hat, Bandit Belt, Bandit Hat, Roan Coldvice, Coldvices Buldwark, Bandit Hat, Bandit Hat, Roan Coldvice
Number of Boxes opened: 11

*All I was looking for was cane/cape* T_T
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08-03-2012   #20 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Synzie
Sorry for double posting, I forgot the date on my last post, the date was 2012/07/31

Box Name and Level: Roan Coldvice Box DX
Location: PvP Colluseam
Where you get your time from (trickster website/other): Website
Time(s) and Date (PST): 11th July 2012 15:47
Item(s) Received: Roan Coldvice, Roan Coldvice, Roan Coldvice, Bandit Hat, Bandit Belt, Bandit Hat, Roan Coldvice, Coldvices Buldwark, Bandit Hat, Bandit Hat, Roan Coldvice
Number of Boxes opened: 11

*All I was looking for was cane/cape* T_T
thank you for your contributions! Like my post above, could you give an estimate for when you opened the boxes after your first one? Or maybe the time in between openings of each box? ie. I opening them all within a minute, or I waited 30 seconds between each opening etc.

Thanks! ^^ it's too bad you were looking for the cape and cane, you got so lucky with the pet for some reason!
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