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 ggFTW Forum A man walks into a bar... (probability question)

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 11-13-2008 #2 (permalink) ggFTW Stalker Games   Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Australia Posts: 1,759 iTrader: (9) lol... i would say the bartender will never lose. So 0. If you multiply infinite times of 1/2 probability you'll just get 0. I was never good at probabililty at school so thats just a guess xD
 11-13-2008 #3 (permalink) Discuss. Games Awards   Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: California Posts: 3,019 iTrader: (1) IGN: Xpec Class: Dainn Level: - Guild: - Theoretically, one can continue to flip the coin until that happens. Probability wise, I think the chances of that is quite low as it would mean: 2 tails: 1 head (the closer this approaches infinity, the more accurate the requirement would be). However, I have not taken any statistics class, so if there is some weird solution, don't kill me for being wrong. __________________
 11-13-2008 #4 (permalink) Sexy Bish <3   Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: █♣█ Posts: 2,437 iTrader: (22) 50 % __________________
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by TogSawks lol... i would say the bartender will never lose. So 0. If you multiply infinite times of 1/2 probability you'll just get 0. I was never good at probabililty at school so thats just a guess xD
I DON'T understand, but it's impossible for the probability to be 0.
Law of large numbers: As the number of flips goes to infinity, the ratio of heads to tails will go to 1:1. Saying that the chance of getting a ratio of 1:2 at some point infinitely far away is 100% would contradict that law.

@Skillz: What would you say if the initial number of heads was 100? If the answer is 50% starting with 20 heads, it's impossible for the answer to be 50% with 100 heads.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Xpecial However, I have not taken any statistics class, so if there is some weird solution, don't kill me for being wrong.
All you need is (love) algebra
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Unless that coin is actually improportional due to weight balances, it's 50%.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by sentythee @Skillz: What would you say if the initial number of heads was 100? If the answer is 50% starting with 20 heads, it's impossible for the answer to be 50% with 100 heads.
Theory and reality are two different environments. Even though you may have a probability that situation B may occur with situation A, that doesn't mean that probability will account for what will happen.
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Last edited by k0n; 11-14-2008 at 10:07 AM.

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Alright, I think I understand why people are saying 50%. And to clear that up:
Quote:
 Originally Posted by sentythee "You've flipped the coin 20 times landed heads every single time. Let's try something different for the next Double-or-Nothing. I'll let you keep flipping the coin as many times as you like. If at any point you have managed to land twice as many tails as you have landed heads, I'll call off all the money you owe me. The 20 you've already flipped will still count against you."
>>
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 11-14-2008 #8 (permalink) <3 Awards   Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 845 Blog Entries: 1 iTrader: (0) IGN: Vaiki So aren't we looking for a probability of landing the next 40 coins tails __________________
 11-14-2008 #9 (permalink) ggFTW Stalker   Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: In reckless abandon, I follow the Turtle. Posts: 520 iTrader: (0) Guild: Titans No, the bartender can also flip 5 heads and 50 tails to win (for a total of 25 heads and 50 tails). He can also flip 100 heads and 240 tails to win (120 heads, 240 tails total). __________________ ]
 11-14-2008 #10 (permalink) ggFTW Stalker   Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 577 iTrader: (0) Doesn't it multiply after every try? Like so- 1st flip : ------------1/2% heads --- 1/2% tail ------------|---------------------| 2nd flip 1/2 and 1/2-----------1/2 and 1/2 ---------|----------|------------|-----------| 3---1/2l 1/2---1/2--1/2-----1/2l1/2------1/2l1/2 so on and so on.. let's say for 3 heads in a row chances would be (1/2*1/2*1/2)= 0.125 or 12.5% chance flipping heads 20 times = 0.0000009536743 or 0.00009536743% ( lol) I dunno about the problem, I was just trying to remember how to do probability problems, it's been really long time :0 Also, the chance of him getting heads infinite times will never be 0%, there will always be a chance, even if it's incredibly small
 11-14-2008 #11 (permalink) ggFTW Stalker Games   Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Australia Posts: 1,759 iTrader: (9) in relation to probability of 0, anything tending towards infinity can be 0 or a really large number. 1/infinity is infact 0
 11-14-2008 #12 (permalink) C.I.A. Rad Bromance Games Awards   Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: In An Epic Battle Posts: 5,216 Blog Entries: 17 iTrader: (12) IGN: Torikakae Class: Buffalo Level: 400 Guild: Mirage Coordinator I thought that infinity is not a number, therefore cannot be used in algebraic equations. So you can't divide by infinity, right?
 11-14-2008 #13 (permalink) Legends of League Games   Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Montreal Posts: 2,622 iTrader: (60) IGN: Ideality Level: 30 In limits, using infinity is allowed to determine end behaviour. __________________ League of Legends Fanatic - NA - Ideality
 11-14-2008 #14 (permalink) ggFTW Stalker Games   Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Australia Posts: 1,759 iTrader: (9) so i don't really see how you can use algebra to solve this. all i can say is probability was bartender winning is 100% at infinity, unless the OP gives another logical solution.
 11-14-2008 #15 (permalink) Discuss. Games Awards   Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: California Posts: 3,019 iTrader: (1) IGN: Xpec Class: Dainn Level: - Guild: - Well, obviously he doesn't just mean Algebra 1, or concepts specifically taught in those classes. Probability is in Algebra btw. __________________
 11-14-2008 #16 (permalink) Planeswalker Games Awards   Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 3,987 iTrader: (0) ._. I'd say 100% due to luck? Since theres in a 50% chance of getting either heads or tails, you need to get lucky enough to get more tails than heads, so if you keep flipping EVENTUALLY you'll get 2:1? If you want to be a realistic bastard though, just say the bartender will die before he can flip 2:1 since you'd have to flip that coin for an incredibly long time unless he has LUCK HAX. __________________
 11-14-2008 #17 (permalink) ggFTW Stalker Games   Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Australia Posts: 1,759 iTrader: (9) if LK doesnt work on trickster it won't work on maths either hahahaha. Maths will always have some retarded solution to anything, so luck is out of the question. However, I can agree that if i was an realistic bastard, the bartender would have already died.
 11-15-2008 #19 (permalink) ggFTW Stalker Games   Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Australia Posts: 1,759 iTrader: (9) Law of large numbers what the hell?
 11-15-2008 #20 (permalink) Legends of League Games   Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Montreal Posts: 2,622 iTrader: (60) IGN: Ideality Level: 30 That's theory for you, the more you think about it, the more your head hurts. Love these awesome Law names __________________ League of Legends Fanatic - NA - Ideality

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