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11-15-2008   #21 (permalink)
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Is it really 50%? What about the physics involved in it? The variables such as the air movement and projection, mental cognitive processes, wind, heat (What if an electromagnetic field occurred, what if I shot the coin while it was in the air, what if someone entered the room and thus moved the air enough to cause the person to somehow throw it differently, what if the person dies, what if the person falls asleep, what if the projection of the coin changed, what if there was an additional variable?) It's still all theoretical with your problem while in reality..to me the world is all variables..lines..shapes..space..dimensions..time. .energy
(k) (2k) (IMPOSSIBLE TO assume limitless flips, as his energy will eventually run out, and he will die [inevitably] somehow or he will fall asleep [assuming no technology keeps him awake])
Win = 2k
Lose = Die before reaching 2k
In theory, it will just stay at 50%, we cannot assume the certainty of getting 2x, nor can we assume the certainty of never reaching 2x, eventually he will WIN since there will always be a chance of winning, since it is limitless flips...You can't LOSE if the possible possibility is INFINITE as it will be like PI (INFINITE DECIMAL NUMBER CHANCE)..imagine dividing a number 1 by 2 continuously, it is impossible for it to reach 0 but we call it 0 anyways because it's INSIGNIFICANT!!! <-- in theory
In reality, it will just stay at undefined, until you give me a constant (number of flips), it's true that his chances of winning will diminish with each flip that goes to head, eventually reaching a point where it is BEYOND possible faithful means of winning, even with a theoretical probability of being able to have 2x the amount of heads, thus one would say 0% chance of winning, unless there is another variable, in which the logical assumption of not cheating is broken. You cannot say it's 100% nor 0%, as it violates 'law of law of law of law of law' in which I want to just say **** it and kill all people who say law of this or that. Or I can say that the bartender will CERTAINLY WIN or LOSE according to this DEFINITE OUTCOME of a POSSIBLE timeline. Therefore he will win and he will lose. I have an idea, you go make a computer simulator that can calculate 1000 quadrillion calculations per second, and see if he starts off with 20 heads, and than see if it is possible to get double the number of heads, or of course we can get the whole world to flip a coin and try to beat 2x heads starting off with 20 heads, and in all likelihood, I can certainly guarantee you that there will only be one or less cases of 2x heads without any CHEATING variable and as more people flip, I can also say that the experimental probability will be closer to the theoretical probability, and so I apply the law of large numbers and say it will eventually reach 1:1 but reality will say that he will die before it happens as he cannot simulate 6 billion + flips per four seconds for assuming 80 years all in his life.
Theory =/= Reality
Fixed/Constants =/= Variables/Undefined

o im such a hypocrite
and so i say 0.00000000000000000000000001% < in reality
and 50% in theory as it will stay at 1/1


More assumptions made :
They don't change rules
He doesn't considers losing as winning
Limitless flips!
First 20 flips wasn't a result of cheating.
Everything is constant.

Last edited by Vegeance; 11-15-2008 at 06:26 PM.
 
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11-15-2008   #22 (permalink)
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Basically, the more you gamble the more it evens out the probabilities

You may get 20 heads in a row, but eventually if you flip it thousands of times it will slowly even out to 50/50
 
12-09-2008   #23 (permalink)
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So the answer is some sort of linear equation ._.?
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